May 16 - The dollar fell the most against the euro in a month and depreciated versus the yen as a drop in consumer confidence and a surge in crude oil to a record increased concern U.S. economic growth will slow.
The currency dropped for the first time in four days against the euro and was down versus most of its major counterparts. The Australian dollar touched a 24-year high against the greenback as crude oil pushed prices of other commodities up.
``The dollar is under pressure,'' said Hidetoshi Yanagihara, senior currency trader at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York. ``Higher commodity prices are affecting consumer confidence, casting a shadow on the economy.''
The dollar decreased 1 percent to $1.5594 per euro at 4:27 p.m. in New York, from $1.5448 yesterday. It earlier broke through $1.56 for the first time since May 1. The U.S. currency dropped 0.7 percent to 103.96 yen, from 104.74. The euro advanced 0.2 percent to 162.13 yen, from 161.79 yesterday.
The U.S. currency, which has risen 3 percent from a record low of $1.6019 against the euro on April 22, is down 0.7 percent this week, its second straight decline. The yen has fallen 1.8 percent against the euro, the biggest drop since mid-April. It's down 1 percent versus the dollar this week.
Crude oil rallied to the all-time high of $127.82 a barrel, leading commodities higher, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecast for the second half of this year to an average of $141 a barrel, citing supply constraints.
Euro Correlation
The correlation coefficient between oil and the euro-dollar exchange rate has been 0.95 for the past year, indicating they have moved in the same direction 95 percent of the time. The correlation is calculated based on the price changes of oil and the currencies.
The Australian dollar increased as much as 1.7 percent to 95.60 U.S. cents, the highest level since 1984, on higher commodity prices. Exports of raw materials, such as iron ore, account for 17 percent of Australia's economy.
Canada's dollar was little changed after touching 99.43 cents per U.S. dollar, the strongest since March 19. The currency has traded near parity with its U.S. counterpart this year after climbing 17 percent in 2007. Commodities such as oil account for about half of Canada's exports.
The dollar dropped as much as 0.8 percent to the nine-year low of 1.6409 versus the Brazilian real and fell as much as 1.6 percent to 5.0131 against the Norwegian krone, the weakest since April 24. Norway is the world's fifth-largest oil producer, while the real has gained 19 percent in the past 12 months, buoyed by a surge in exports of sugar and iron ore.
`All About Oil'
``Today it's all about oil,'' said Alan Kabbani, senior currency trader at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Iceland's krona was the best performer against the dollar among emerging-market currencies, increasing 4.6 percent to 74.32 after the central banks of Denmark, Sweden and Norway pledged as much as 1.5 billion euros ($2.3 billion) in emergency funds. The krona jumped 3.7 percent to 115.88 per euro. Before today, it had slumped 24 percent against the euro this year.
The dollar weakened as a report showed confidence among U.S. consumers fell in May to the lowest level in almost 28 years. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 59.5 this month, from 62.6 in April. The median forecast of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reading of 62.
The U.S. Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, tracking the dollar against the currencies of six major counterparts, fell 0.8 percent to 72.792, the lowest since May 1. It dropped to a record of 70.698 on March 17.
Fed Rate Outlook
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show 88 percent odds that the Fed will hold the target lending rate at 2 percent at its next meeting on June 25. The balance of bets is for a reduction of a quarter-percentage point. There's a 21 percent chance of an increase to 2.25 percent in September.
The euro rose earlier against the dollar as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank can't relax in its fight against inflation.
``There is no place for complacency,'' Trichet said in a speech in Brussels today. ``Price stability in the medium term has to be'' ensured. It's ``a necessary condition to sustain economic growth, job creation and social cohesion.''
The ECB has held its main refinancing rate at a six-year high of 4 percent since last June to control inflation, which accelerated to the fastest pace in 16 years in March.








































































